Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4c4…8217 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+5%) realized +$106 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$140
sports 2% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.4% +20.7% 67% 67% -14.2%
≤30d 6 +33.4% +20.7% 67% 67% -14.2%
≤90d 6 +33.4% +20.7% 67% 67% -14.2%
all 6 +33.4% +20.7% 67% 67% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 67% -14.2%
10% +9.1% 67% -22.4%
15% -1.4% 67% -29.9%
20% -11.1% 50% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$251 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$57 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$205 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $154 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.66 · official $893.66 (match) · 22 history records