Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa4c8…a722 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+33%) realized +$163 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$37
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.8% +15.6% 71% 71% +51.1%
≤30d 7 +27.8% +15.6% 71% 71% +51.1%
≤90d 7 +27.8% +15.6% 71% 71% +51.1%
all 7 +27.8% +15.6% 71% 71% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 71% +51.1%
10% +4.5% 71% +36.6%
15% -5.6% 57% +23.4%
20% -14.8% 57% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×8.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.36 per $1 lost it wins $20.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs SAW 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$6 +32%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $42 +$33 +79%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $12 +$8 +73%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) Jun 27 $6 +$6 +97%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $10 +$12 +114%
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY SAW 62¢ $101 1h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 55¢ $42 15h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 71¢ $7 18h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 48¢ $13 18h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 57¢ $12 21h
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) SELL Wuhan San Zhen FC 100¢ $12 24h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL roamsfiest 100¢ $22 24h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 46¢ $10 25h
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 50¢ $6 25h
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 14 history records