Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4cc…e5d1 sports 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,075 (-24%) realized −$1,075 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,500
14 days−$699
30 days−$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$473
sports 18% −$626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-66.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -62.9% -66.4% 22% 22% -31.5%
≤90d 9 -62.9% -66.4% 22% 22% -31.5%
all 9 -62.9% -66.4% 22% 22% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.4% 22% -31.5%
10% -69.7% 22% -38.1%
15% -72.6% 22% -44.0%
20% -75.3% 22% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$650 vs −$343 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,075
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage12d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,023 +$1,227 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records