trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +9.6% | -0.9% | 56% | 11% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 57% | 7% | -7.5% |
| all | 28 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 61% | 4% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.0% | 4% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -15.0% | 4% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -23.2% | 4% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -30.7% | 4% | -32.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $45 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $6 | +$5 | +84% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $71 | +$5 | +6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 21 | $32 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 21 | $24 | $0 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 18 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Apr 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio | Apr 14 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | Apr 14 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced before May? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 11 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 07 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | -1% |