Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa4cf…3e8c crypto 223 markets active 9h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$576 (-0%) realized +$315 · open −$891
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%105W / 91L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$639per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$3,016
14 days+$3,051
30 days+$6,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$3,785
sports 33% +$199
other 10% +$4,547
politics 0% +$50
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +198.6% +170.2% 78% 78% +102.8%
≤30d 22 +128.0% +106.3% 55% 55% +94.3%
≤90d 35 +72.7% +56.2% 46% 46% +3.3%
all 196 +4.6% -5.4% 54% 41% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 41% -8.3%
10% -14.4% 34% -17.0%
15% -22.7% 30% -25.0%
20% -30.3% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$756) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$210 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$6,659
Realized+$315
Unrealized−$891
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses105 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions6
Markets (closed)196 / 223
History coverage148d
Avg bet$639
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $2,352 −$648 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,513 +$13 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,227 +$227 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,050 $987 −$63 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $307 −$193 (-39%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $274 −$226 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 21 $102 +$477 +466%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $204 +$337 +165%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $255 −$17 -7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $198 +$218 +110%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbek Jun 18 $205 +$828 +404%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust Jun 17 $103 +$498 +486%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 +$462 +226%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $514 +$3,213 +625%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $206 +$1,267 +615%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $308 −$8 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $810 −$158 -20%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $87 −$85 -97%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $103 +$136 +132%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $515 −$62 -12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 22 $104 +$168 +161%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 22 $507 −$182 -36%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 21 $3,023 +$1,031 +34%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 17 $509 +$181 +36%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 13 $18,764 −$898 -5%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $509 +$741 +146%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $7,981 −$648 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 02 $1,024 −$1,022 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$56 +56%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 01 $200 +$99 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$58 -58%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka Feb 26 $3,025 +$33 +1%
Mexican Open: Yibing Wu vs Sho Shimabukuro Feb 26 $1,405 +$190 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 26 $1,275 +$129 +10%
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $100 +$64 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs BUY 11¢ $103 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both BUY 20¢ $102 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argenti BUY 28¢ $204 9h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY $10 42h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: BUY 12¢ $103 42h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 30¢ $204 42h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 34¢ $204 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $204 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 34¢ $238 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $255 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 17¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 17¢ $102 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 30¢ $204 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 47¢ $198 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 10¢ $103 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U BUY 18¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $205 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $204 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY $103 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze BUY 20¢ $205 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $153 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 12¢ $103 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbek BUY 19¢ $205 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekis BUY 31¢ $204 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $204 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,008 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust BUY 17¢ $103 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will A BUY 32¢ $204 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 8d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $204 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,658.62 · official $6,996.88 · 478 history records