Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa4d0…0bd9 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-9%) realized −$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%49W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$55
sports 44% −$136
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -8.7%
≤30d 40 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 40 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 58% -8.7%
all 99 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 48% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -18.6%
10% -26.2% 47% -26.4%
15% -33.3% 42% -33.5%
20% -39.8% 33% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses49 / 50
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 104
History coverage246d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$13 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$25 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$24 +119%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Hornets vs. Pelicans Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Raptors Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $10 +$5 +47%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 04 $15 +$4 +28%
Jazz vs. Celtics Nov 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $40 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.61 · official $158.61 (match) · 159 history records