Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa4d8…6e6b crypto 1134 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,014 (+1%) realized +$1,014 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate94%1071W / 63L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$454
14 days−$66
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 9% -13.6%
≤30d 422 +1.4% -8.2% 94% 16% -9.8%
≤90d 1134 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 14% -9.0%
all 1134 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 14% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 8% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$86 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$1,014
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1071 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1134 / 1134
History coverage84d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1134 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$54 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$8 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$97 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.38 · official $106.38 (match) · 2281 history records