Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4dd…23ff
sports · 406 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$2,200 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,886 · open −$637
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized+$1,886
Unrealized−$637
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses187 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions3
Markets (closed)403 / 406
History coverage68d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 403 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,363
7 days−$128
14 days+$359
30 days+$1,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $638 $1 −$637 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $214 −$214 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $387 −$28 -7%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,759 −$111 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $154 −$17 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $309 +$59 +19%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 13 $1 +$4 +304%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $377 −$97 -26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $163 −$163 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $414 −$414 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 13 $422 −$422 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $366 −$366 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $527 −$527 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $63 +$67 +108%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $81 +$89 +110%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 +$31 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $250 +$269 +108%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 +$6 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 +$52 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $60 +$11 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $376 +$223 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $204 +$206 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $155 +$245 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $149 +$100 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $31 +$29 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $47 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 −$1 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $211 +$189 +89%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $328 +$282 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $249 +$251 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 +$40 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$2,013
other 22% −$309
world 3% −$252
crypto 2% −$410
politics 1% +$219
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL T1 48¢ $359 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) SELL Top Esports 49¢ $1,648 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Top Esports 51¢ $1,759 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 50¢ $183 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 SELL Under 45¢ $137 3h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 49¢ $149 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $235 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $367 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $411 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $309 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 49¢ $154 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $60 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $11 12h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 54¢ $55 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $20 17h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $53 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $519 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 32h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 34h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $34 34h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $154 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 44¢ $104 35h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $71 35h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $11 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $280 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 47% -10.3%
≤30d 256 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 43% -5.9%
≤90d 403 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 44% -5.5%
all 403 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 44% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -5.5%
10% -21.1% 40% -14.6%
15% -28.7% 35% -22.8%
20% -35.7% 29% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.55 · official $53.55 (match) · 1182 history records