Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4de…3920 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,219 (-5%) realized −$2,219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$541est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$265
14 days−$447
30 days−$1,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$862
other 24% −$860
tech 9% −$444
economics 8% −$148
world 6% −$72
politics 4% −$39
culture 3% −$82
finance 2% −$38
crypto 1% −$26
weather 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.2% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 63 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 258 -7.5% -16.3% 8% 4% -14.9%
all 258 -7.5% -16.3% 8% 4% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 4% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 2% -23.0%
15% -31.6% 2% -30.5%
20% -38.3% 1% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$541
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $703 −$5 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $237 −$8 -4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $125 −$4 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $354 −$6 -2%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $158 −$7 -4%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $524 −$8 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1,160 −$36 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $362 −$39 -11%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $1,852 −$94 -5%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $152 −$6 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $290 −$5 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,498 −$41 -3%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $175 −$7 -4%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $176 −$23 -13%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and Jun 07 $27 −$19 -72%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $47 −$2 -5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $206 −$11 -5%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $382 −$13 -4%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $444 −$12 -3%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 06 $28 −$1 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $162 −$8 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $434 −$4 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 05 $236 −$4 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 05 $176 −$6 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $1,510 −$47 -3%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 04 $519 −$21 -4%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 04 $114 −$1 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $360 −$7 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $392 −$11 -3%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP May 30 $28 −$2 -7%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $399 −$12 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $214 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $366 −$4 -1%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $153 −$5 -3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? May 25 $252 −$9 -4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? May 24 $338 −$11 -3%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $343 −$7 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? May 24 $1,181 −$306 -26%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 24 $7 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $341 −$7 -2%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $365 −$29 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $708 −$28 -4%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,016 −$7 -1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $535 −$21 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $392 −$17 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $346 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $348 31m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $161 59m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $164 59m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $73 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $75 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $122 4h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $125 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $348 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $354 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $352 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $355 12h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL No 30¢ $63 32h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? BUY No 30¢ $64 32h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $50 32h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $54 32h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $151 33h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $158 33h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $44 34h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $164 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $170 39h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 58¢ $218 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 59¢ $225 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $323 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $362 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 57¢ $347 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $371 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $147 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $152 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records