Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4de…672a sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$53 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$2
14 days+$33
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.5% +2.7% 38% 38% -8.7%
≤30d 19 +15.5% +4.5% 42% 42% +11.8%
≤90d 41 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 29% -15.3%
all 41 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 29% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 29% -15.3%
10% -28.7% 29% -23.4%
15% -35.6% 29% -30.8%
20% -41.9% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$23 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage62d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Corentin Moutet 40¢ 42¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Joaquin Aguilar 44¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $36 +$40 +108%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Set 2 Winner: Sonmez vs Klugman Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $31 +$58 +188%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $20 +$44 +216%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $61 +$62 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $41 +$80 +197%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $41 +$62 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $41 +$59 +146%
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama May 26 $30 +$28 +93%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Cervia: Ivan Ivanov vs Franco Roncadelli May 19 $30 $0 -2%
Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikova May 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Chun-Hsin Tseng May 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone May 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5 May 07 $25 $0 -2%
Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Andreeva vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly May 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Florent Bax May 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Cagliari: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Marcos Giron May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Saint-Malo: Bianca Andreescu vs Yue Yuan May 01 $19 +$34 +180%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $20 +$56 +276%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Ostrava: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Norbert Gombos Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Lehecka vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 29 $20 +$23 +114%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
La Bisbal: Emiliana Arango vs Daria Kasatkina Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Sofia Costoulas vs. Ayla Aksu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Saint-Malo: Alina Korneeva vs Amandine Monnot Apr 28 $14 +$43 +307%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Nakashima Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Liudmila Samsonova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Joaquin Aguilar 44¢ $25 1h
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $36 9h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $41 10h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus SELL Minaur/Norrie 36¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus SELL Minaur/Norrie 36¢ $8 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus SELL Minaur/Norrie 36¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus SELL Minaur/Norrie 36¢ $4 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus BUY Minaur/Norrie 37¢ $20 2d
Set 2 Winner: Sonmez vs Klugman BUY Klugman 24¢ $16 3d
Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 7d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 34¢ $31 8d
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 47¢ $41 8d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $41 8d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 31¢ $20 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $31 15d
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 16d
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 49¢ $41 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 11¢ $11 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 33¢ $41 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $102 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 13¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 13¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 13¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Raphael Collignon 39¢ $41 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Vit Kopriva 40¢ $41 22d
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama BUY Andre Ilagan 51¢ $30 23d
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 50¢ $41 24d
Cervia: Ivan Ivanov vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 50¢ $30 29d
Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Camila Osorio 49¢ $30 33d
Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 40¢ $31 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.35 · official $67.35 (match) · 94 history records