trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 44% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 44% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 25 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 52% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.8% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $47 | $47 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 16 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $35 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $89 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $53 | −$2 | -3% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $47 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $8 | −$1 | -15% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $38 | +$1 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 21 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | May 18 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Apr 02 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 29 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Mar 28 | $2 | −$1 | -87% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 24 | $17 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? | Mar 21 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 21 | $17 | +$1 | +3% |