Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e0…6392 weather 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,310 (-16%) realized −$1,420 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%58W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$192
14 days−$97
30 days−$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$786
finance 14% +$61
weather 11% −$126
crypto 11% −$369
other 10% −$345
economics 5% +$15
sports 4% −$54
tech 2% +$53
politics 2% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 47% -20.5%
≤30d 134 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 37% -23.4%
≤90d 177 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 31% -27.5%
all 187 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 30% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -30.2%
10% -30.5% 30% -36.9%
15% -37.2% 26% -43.0%
20% -43.4% 22% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$31 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized−$1,420
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses58 / 129
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)187 / 206
History coverage408d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 80¢ $44 $165 +$122 (+277%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 61¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? Yes 81¢ 52¢ $70 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 52¢ 74¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 69¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+39%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 62¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $41 +$14 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $80 +$38 +47%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $50 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $25 −$19 -73%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -27%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 16 $46 −$44 -96%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 16 $12 −$7 -61%
Will USD/CAD hit 1.42 (High) in 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Will USD/CAD hit 1.33 (Low) in 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$15 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $41 +$11 +26%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -92%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $41 −$33 -80%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$22 -74%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 −$13 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 14 $42 −$29 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$29 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$20 +132%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 53m
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 64¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $41 11h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 37h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 38h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 38h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 27¢ $5 38h
Will USD/CAD hit 1.42 (High) in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 38h
Will USD/CAD hit 1.33 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.34 · official $725.48 (match) · 443 history records