Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4e1…018f
crypto · 150 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$4 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses80 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$10
other 7% −$1
politics 2% +$12
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -2.5% -11.7% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤30d 110 -2.5% -11.7% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤90d 113 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 57% -8.5%
all 150 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 53% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 53% -7.9%
10% -21.2% 53% -16.7%
15% -28.8% 53% -24.8%
20% -35.8% 46% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records