Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e1…d80b sports 497 markets active 0h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,305 (+2%) realized +$3,621 · open −$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%238W / 254L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1,001est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$12,766
14 days+$12,766
30 days+$14,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$7,151
other 6% −$3,713
world 1% +$159
politics 1% +$248
crypto 0% −$281
weather 0% −$96
tech 0% −$75
economics 0% −$44
finance 0% +$99
culture 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 38% +48.6%
≤30d 27 +2.0% -7.7% 56% 52% +43.1%
≤90d 299 -56.5% -60.6% 23% 22% -32.7%
all 492 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 47% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 47% -7.8%
10% -24.5% 46% -16.6%
15% -31.8% 40% -24.7%
20% -38.5% 34% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +48% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$301 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$3,621
Unrealized−$240
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses238 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,001
Open positions5
Markets (closed)492 / 497
History coverage266d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ 78¢ $502 $484 −$19 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 41¢ 39¢ $205 $195 −$10 (-5%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 0¢ $208 $2 −$206 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Movistar KOI 35¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs ZYB Esport 40¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox 47¢ 0¢ $510 $0 −$510 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage Vasco Esports 40¢ 0¢ $499 $0 −$499 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 42¢ 0¢ $548 $0 −$548 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner GamerLegion 29¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Victoria Mboko 58¢ 0¢ $303 $0 −$303 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Shauna Bannon 31¢ 0¢ $315 $0 −$315 (-100%)
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A ex-HEROIC 51¢ 0¢ $257 $0 −$257 (-100%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) GamerLegion 48¢ 0¢ $227 $0 −$227 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 54¢ 0¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Ozzy Diaz 14¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Sinners 39¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Polyana Viana 38¢ 0¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group B MASONIC 45¢ 0¢ $224 $0 −$224 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage Betclic Apogee Esports 27¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Terence Atmane 73¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $302 $0 −$302 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $270 +$175 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $557 −$548 -98%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $482 +$382 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$445 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,014 +$899 +89%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $2,224 +$11 +0%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $2,518 −$2,493 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $305 −$301 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $269 −$265 -99%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $305 −$303 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $305 −$302 -99%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $11,255 +$15,164 +135%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) May 25 $349 +$125 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima May 25 $370 +$104 +28%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $254 +$246 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 22 $508 −$504 -99%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $508 +$492 +97%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $1,013 +$1,037 +102%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $229 −$227 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $637 +$370 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $447 +$553 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 17 $308 +$412 +134%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 17 $304 +$196 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $298 −$293 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $318 −$315 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $769 +$731 +95%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $306 +$194 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $508 +$222 +44%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $498 −$491 -99%
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie May 13 $508 −$504 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In May 13 $226 −$224 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $563 +$412 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 13 $505 −$499 -99%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $259 −$257 -99%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu May 13 $216 −$212 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $196 +$54 +27%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions May 12 $546 −$546 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rare Atom (BO3) - Asian Champions Leagu May 12 $552 +$485 +88%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $199 −$195 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $511 +$809 +158%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $397 +$103 +26%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $508 +$372 +73%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $88 −$88 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $387 −$380 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $518 −$510 -98%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Apr 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $204 6m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $211 46m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $505 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $270 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $209 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $234 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $511 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $112 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $92 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $253 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $142 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 67¢ $895 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 65¢ $17 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 65¢ $78 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 65¢ $7 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 65¢ $20 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 65¢ $38 3d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi BUY Yunchaokete Bu 49¢ $1,020 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $269 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $289 3d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi BUY Yunchaokete Bu 49¢ $114 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 62¢ $420 3d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 62¢ $144 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.60 · official $1,105.60 (match) · 2467 history records