Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e3…7716 politics 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,484 (-0%) realized −$1,486 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 142L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,702per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$67
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$195
other 30% +$170
sports 8% −$1,495
economics 4% −$9
culture 3% −$14
world 2% +$1
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +2.5% -7.2% 11% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -8.4% -17.1% 8% 5% -10.3%
all 181 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 9% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 8% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,417) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$1,486
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,702
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $3,220 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $3,835 −$5 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 22 $2,924 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $2,018 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,748 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,042 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,395 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5,975 −$8 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,311 −$7 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,540 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,548 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,254 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,228 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,734 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,244 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,268 −$4 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $72 +$73 +101%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,512 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $80 +$63 +79%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,105 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $3,684 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,718 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $59 +$38 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $397 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $515 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $3,040 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $6,577 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $629 25m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $630 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 5h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $626 6h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 7h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $681 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $682 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $686 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $180 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $687 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $347 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $347 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $848 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $849 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $650 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $651 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $805 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $806 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,115 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.17 · official $182.17 (match) · 717 history records