Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa4e4…c62a sports 1491 markets active 16h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-1%) realized −$114 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%688W / 746L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$293
7 days−$122
14 days+$77
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$745
other 9% +$16
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -17.6% -25.4% 39% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 884 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 1434 +1.6% -8.0% 48% 47% -4.2%
all 1434 +1.6% -8.0% 48% 47% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 47% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -13.3%
15% -24.9% 46% -21.7%
20% -32.2% 41% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses688 / 746
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1434 / 1491
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 47¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 60¢ 38¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? No 54¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 40¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Lotte Giants 47¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 43¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 33¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$2 -394%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 150.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-03? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-03? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Oilers Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Huzhou: Yufei Ren vs Yidi Yang Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will KF Shkëndija 79 vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-6.5) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Telstar 1963 vs. NAC Breda: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Everton FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will St Mirren FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Savannah: Braden Shick vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jun 22 $2 −$2 -103%
SS Juve Stabia vs. Virtus Entella: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-6.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. A BUY No 47¢ $4 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 43¢ $4 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $4 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $4 16h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. A BUY No 48¢ $4 16h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 51¢ $4 17h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 52¢ $4 17h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $4 17h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $4 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 20h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $4 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $4 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $2 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $2 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $4 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 22h
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 22h
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Jacquemot (+1.5) BUY Sonmez 51¢ $4 23h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 50¢ $4 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Veronika Erjavec 21¢ $4 25h
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Jacquemot (+1.5) BUY Jacquemot 51¢ $4 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 29¢ $4 25h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 29¢ $4 26h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $4 27h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 40¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.28 · official $72.29 (match) · 3500 history records