Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e4…f606 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%53W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$3
crypto 17% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 21% -11.7%
≤30d 66 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 21% -11.7%
≤90d 66 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 21% -11.7%
all 66 -3.2% -12.4% 80% 21% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 21% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 14% -20.1%
15% -28.5% 11% -27.8%
20% -35.5% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses53 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$16 -31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$4 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records