Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e8…ff03 sports 1038 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+0%) realized +$127 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%565W / 461L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$374est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$1,291
14 days+$1,538
30 days+$1,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$735
other 21% +$167
world 0% +$26
crypto 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 53% +2.7%
≤30d 546 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 54% +3.2%
≤90d 1026 +3.1% -6.8% 55% 54% -11.0%
all 1026 +3.1% -6.8% 55% 54% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 54% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 53% -19.5%
15% -23.8% 44% -27.3%
20% -31.3% 35% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses565 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$374
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1026 / 1038
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $178 $171 −$7 (-4%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 39¢ 39¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 41¢ 40¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Curaçao 33¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 35¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $8 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $35 +$33 +95%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $2 +$2 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $11 −$10 -87%
Map Handicap: BCA (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 25 $4 +$5 +124%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $6 −$2 -36%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $5 +$8 +141%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $10 −$3 -32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $19 +$7 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $6 −$2 -28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $2 +$1 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $16 +$2 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 25 $12 +$8 +69%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day Jun 25 $5 +$4 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $13 +$3 +26%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$6 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $93 +$48 +51%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $5 +$5 +98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $14 +$15 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $113 +$83 +74%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$1 +46%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +86%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $2 +$6 +238%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 −$26 -94%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$2 -45%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +67%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 +$2 +152%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$10 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $3 7m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $3 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $2 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $2 21m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $39 25m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $21 25m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $49 42m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 41¢ $35 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 40¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $2 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 42¢ $1 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 48¢ $1 2h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $3 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $2 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $16 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 45¢ $3 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 48¢ $4 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 45¢ $7 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 36¢ $1 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 36¢ $7 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $1 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer BUY Robin Montgomery 45¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 78¢ $1 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 35¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 41¢ $2 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 39¢ $2 4h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nick Hardt 44¢ $4 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 44¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.21 · official $457.20 (match) · 3500 history records