Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e9…0208 weather 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$730 (-7%) realized −$730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%51W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$22
14 days−$45
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$380
other 19% −$332
finance 5% −$61
sports 3% −$76
world 2% $0
politics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$43
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 59 -9.2% -17.9% 14% 3% -18.9%
≤90d 159 -9.6% -18.2% 32% 7% -17.3%
all 159 -9.6% -18.2% 32% 7% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 7% -17.3%
10% -26.1% 3% -25.3%
15% -33.2% 1% -32.5%
20% -39.7% 1% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses51 / 108
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage86d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $102 −$12 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $52 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $40 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $584 +$31 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $59 −$42 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $27 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 05 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 −$10 -41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 04 $107 −$18 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 $0 -4%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $112 −$25 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 03 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $63 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $111 −$34 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 29? May 28 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 35¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1503 history records