Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4ef…97b2 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$369 (+8%) realized +$466 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%45W / 40L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$697
14 days+$740
30 days+$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$411
other 28% −$109
crypto 4% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +35.1% +22.2% 62% 62% +20.7%
≤30d 85 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 53% +5.0%
≤90d 85 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 53% +5.0%
all 85 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 53% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 53% +5.0%
10% -3.9% 53% -5.0%
15% -13.2% 51% -14.2%
20% -21.7% 46% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$46 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$466
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses45 / 40
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 99
History coverage15d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $66 −$65 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $51 +$26 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$37 +73%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$26 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$35 +172%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$142 +140%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $102 +$98 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $124 −$122 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$34 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 +$27 +89%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $51 +$221 +432%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$187 +184%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $51 +$155 +302%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +52%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$69 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 +$70 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 45m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY 27¢ $10 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY 27¢ $10 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY 15¢ $20 18h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 18h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austr BUY 4¢ $10 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 32h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 11¢ $10 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 42h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $51 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 42h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 42h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.82 · official $52.83 (match) · 168 history records