Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa4ef…82b8 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-6%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$138
14 days−$664
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$618
other 19% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 61% -5.0%
≤30d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 53% -13.8%
all 43 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 53% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 53% -13.8%
10% -20.8% 40% -22.1%
15% -28.5% 19% -29.6%
20% -35.5% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$116 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage17d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $176 +$44 +25%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $32 +$108 +344%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 +$100 +43%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $194 +$41 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $193 +$101 +52%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $64 +$16 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $190 −$128 -67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$36 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $155 −$154 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $90 +$26 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $270 +$215 +79%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $148 −$133 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $108 +$72 +67%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $52 +$15 +30%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
ITF Los Angeles: Nathan Trouve vs Strong Kirchheimer Jun 11 $51 −$36 -70%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $575 −$130 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $446 −$4 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $313 +$107 +34%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $276 +$44 +16%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $79 −$77 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $201 −$121 -60%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
ITF Harmon: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Kazuki Nishiwaki Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Yidi Yang Jun 04 $207 −$194 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $706 −$499 -71%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $268 +$428 +160%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $20 +$3 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $293 −$288 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $258 +$59 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $144 +$114 +79%
ITF Wuning: Jiaqi Wang vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 02 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $105 +$22 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $6 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $9 +$11 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 63¢ $76 54m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $146 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 88¢ $301 7h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 22¢ $32 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 85¢ $3 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $233 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $194 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $193 27h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $62 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $190 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $155 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $104 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $270 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $90 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao 8¢ $15 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 74¢ $126 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 74¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 74¢ $12 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Under 45¢ $68 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $52 3d
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 76¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $108 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 82¢ $101 3d
ITF Los Angeles: Nathan Trouve vs Strong Kirchheimer SELL Nathan Trouve 26¢ $15 6d
ITF Los Angeles: Nathan Trouve vs Strong Kirchheimer BUY Nathan Trouve 83¢ $51 6d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records