Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A4 0xa4f4…cd48 crypto 1508 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$327 (-4%) realized −$327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%989W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$55
14 days−$70
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$91
other 1% +$1
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 257 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 49% -13.2%
≤30d 1398 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 59% -9.8%
≤90d 1398 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 59% -9.8%
all 1508 -2.0% -11.3% 66% 56% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -10.6%
10% -19.8% 46% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 36% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses989 / 519
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1508 / 1508
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1508 Trades
no open positions (420 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records