Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa4f5…9ed6 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1,136 (-21%) realized −$1,105 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$10
14 days−$31
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$122
politics 21% −$592
sports 17% −$358
other 12% −$254
tech 9% +$211
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +8.0% -2.2% 50% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 47 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 47% -13.4%
≤90d 47 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 47% -13.4%
all 67 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 43% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 43% -30.7%
10% -17.1% 40% -37.3%
15% -25.1% 37% -43.4%
20% -32.5% 30% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$66 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,105
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage243d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 48¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Top Esports 71¢ 0¢ $529 $0 −$529 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on October 16? Up 59¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 16? Up 59¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? No 52¢ 0¢ $571 $0 −$571 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) T1 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Movistar KOI 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 +$13 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$28 +110%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $26 +$31 +123%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$47 +164%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$6 +596%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $498 +$398 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$153 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$47 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $46 +$43 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$13 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $155 +$144 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $247 −$244 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 +$57 +58%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $89 −$82 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $74 +$37 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$41 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $88 −$12 -14%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 23 $1 +$9 +669%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $1,112 −$582 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 25m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $52 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $27 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $39 11h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $32 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 11h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $7 11h
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $498 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $68 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $86 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $63 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.64 · official $63.65 (match) · 244 history records