Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa4f5…426e sports 589 markets active 5h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$235 (+2%) realized +$262 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%228W / 334L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,846
7 days−$2,395
14 days−$1,858
30 days−$1,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$636
crypto 20% −$93
other 18% −$240
world 3% −$61
weather 2% −$59
politics 2% +$23
tech 1% −$17
culture 1% +$1
finance 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -72.2% -74.8% 7% 7% -64.9%
≤30d 288 -38.4% -44.2% 21% 19% -29.5%
≤90d 437 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 32% -10.8%
all 562 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 37% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 37% -7.9%
10% -17.9% 34% -16.7%
15% -25.8% 30% -24.7%
20% -33.1% 26% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses228 / 334
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions10
Markets (closed)562 / 589
History coverage136d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$5 (+50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $27 $5 −$21 (-80%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $98 −$34 -35%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $24 −$4 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $43 −$16 -38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $22 −$5 -22%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by February 28, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 16 $9 −$3 -39%
Will Trump say "Criminal" during 2pm signing? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -89%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $59 −$28 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FUT Esports win PGL Bucharest 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ma Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $20 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $12 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $12 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $2 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $1 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 45¢ $18 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $6 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 44¢ $1 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $15 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $16 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 59¢ $29 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $16 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 9¢ $10 12h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 12h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will A BUY 12¢ $15 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will F BUY 7¢ $10 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 33¢ $16 16h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $28 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.72 · official $60.72 · 1610 history records