Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa4f5…9427 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+18%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$25
crypto 37% +$48
sports 22% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% +11.5%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% +11.5%
≤90d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% +11.5%
all 32 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 56% +11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 50% +0.8%
15% -26.0% 31% -8.9%
20% -33.2% 31% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 +$5 +30%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$14 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$46 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter SELL Mentality Monster 88¢ $23 28m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 76¢ $20 40m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 47m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S SELL OpTic Texas 99¢ $11 7h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 88¢ $10 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 78¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 70¢ $10 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 40h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.81 · official $39.81 (match) · 67 history records