Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4fc…977d
tech · 154 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
+$38,052 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,134 · open +$48,186
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$244,089
Realized−$10,134
Unrealized+$48,186
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses150 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)152 / 154
Avg bet$7,864
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 4 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,354
7 days−$10,327
14 days−$10,136
30 days−$10,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 58¢ 99¢ $143,233 $243,673 +$100,439 (+70%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $25,273 $316 −$24,957 (-99%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $25,273 $63 −$25,210 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2,123 $37 −$2,086 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $10,585 −$10,354 -98%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $915,000 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourn Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $136 +$2 +1%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$380 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $335? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $600? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close at $600-$610 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $285? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $405? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460-$470 on the final day of trading o Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on June 5? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $450-$460 on the final day of trading o Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $148-$150 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.50? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 5? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $230? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $3.00? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $610? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $144-$146 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $225? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $445-$450 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $260-$265 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $270-$275 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $146-$148 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 1 above $149? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 73% $0
economics 19% +$88,000
other 5% −$50,149
sports 3% +$191
tech 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,398 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $195 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $8,992 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $231 42h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $6,979 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $65,368 45h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $9 45h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $96,834 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2,685 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,990 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $199 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,194 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $995 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $199 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9,474 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $378 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $338 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $995 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $31,261 2d
Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourn BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6d
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of BUY Yes 100¢ $212 6d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$250 on the final day of trading of the w BUY Yes 99¢ $246 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 151 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 152 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.5%
all 152 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244,089.00 · official $244,089.00 (match) · 417 history records