Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A4 0xa4fd…748b sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$23,690 (+10%) realized +$14,915 · open +$8,775

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Whale WR33%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9,894per market

Trades / day18.7pace

Fees−$3,625est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$20,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+3.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+14.6%	+3.7%	41%	41%	+2.7%
≤30d	22	+14.6%	+3.7%	41%	41%	+2.7%
≤90d	22	+14.6%	+3.7%	41%	41%	+2.7%
all	22	+14.6%	+3.7%	41%	41%	+2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.7 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+3.7%	41%	+2.7%
10% ← realistic here	-6.2%	41%	-7.2%
15%	-15.3%	41%	-16.1%
20%	-23.6%	41%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 33% (≥$18,359) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +5% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18,278 vs −$10,285 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.23 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$20,136

Realized+$14,915

Unrealized+$8,775

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)33%

Est. fees paid−$3,625

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$9,894

Trades / day18.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$10,000	$11,264	+$1,264 (+13%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	34¢	$0	$7,727	+$7,727 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1,361	$1,144	−$216 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$12,676	+$10,884	+86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$5,078	−$5,000	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$5,080	−$5,000	-98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 22	$7,128	−$7,000	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$5,077	+$4,588	+90%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$14,250	+$20,288	+142%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,235	−$1,200	-97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$3,076	−$3,000	-98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$7,141	+$11,572	+162%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$7,109	+$7,459	+105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$3,064	+$5,690	+186%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$18,938	+$69,066	+365%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$8,547	−$8,322	-97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$4,608	+$17,892	+388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,940	−$2,864	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,225	−$2,163	-97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20,324	−$18,788	-92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16,641	−$16,037	-96%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$19,876	+$17,067	+86%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 20	$18,726	−$18,359	-98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 19	$21,629	−$21,194	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$25,214	−$24,783	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$23,561	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$12,676	2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5	BUY Under	48¢	$5,078	4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	47¢	$5,080	5h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	39¢	$7,128	11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5,130	11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$5,339	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$34,538	11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	SELL Under	88¢	$4,326	11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1,235	12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$3,076	12h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5,117	13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$7,124	13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,401	27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5,132	27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	BUY Under	49¢	$5,077	27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	40¢	$7,126	27h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	SELL Egypt	89¢	$18,713	27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$14,568	28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	85¢	$8,754	28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3,064	29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$7,109	30h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	33¢	$7,141	30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88,004	30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1,441	32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$3,583	32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7,107	33h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15,355	33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1,127	38h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4,608	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,135.55 · official $20,143.51 (match) · 68 history records