Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4ff…1ae1
crypto · 447 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses324 / 122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)446 / 447
History coverage130d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 446 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$150
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 50¢ 68¢ $21 $29 +$7 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 53¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$14 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$17 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$29 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$37 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $43 +$20 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$39 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$22 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$18 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$23 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 04 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 28 $38 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 28 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 28 $273 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 28 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 28 $224 −$33 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 28 $149 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $91 −$32 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 09 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 03 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 03 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 03 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$24
sports 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +24.4% +12.5% 67% 62% +8.3%
≤30d 21 +24.4% +12.5% 67% 62% +8.3%
≤90d 443 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 14% -10.1%
all 446 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 15% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 6% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.14 · official $31.82 (match) · 1383 history records