Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4ff…4c16 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$411 (-21%) realized −$374 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%25W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$92
world 30% −$161
sports 8% −$95
crypto 5% −$16
politics 3% −$27
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.3% -54.1% 29% 29% -2.0%
≤30d 16 -8.5% -17.2% 25% 25% -30.0%
≤90d 99 -30.4% -37.0% 25% 24% -37.6%
all 104 -32.8% -39.2% 24% 23% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 23% -39.6%
10% -45.0% 19% -45.4%
15% -50.3% 17% -50.6%
20% -55.2% 13% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized−$374
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses25 / 79
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)104 / 113
History coverage190d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $151 $137 −$14 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $96 $108 +$11 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $97 $81 −$17 (-17%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $41 $21 −$20 (-49%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-92%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$8 +746%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $65 −$23 -35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 16 $30 −$20 -66%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 +$4 +69%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 14 $15 −$7 -49%
Exact Score: Racing Club de Lens 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 1 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Racing Club de Lens 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Racing Club de Lens 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Racing Club de Lens 3 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $18 −$11 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET May 12 $9 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $3 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $9 10d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $97 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $99 13d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 13d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $5 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $111 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.25 · official $476.25 (match) · 324 history records