Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa503…f952 crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate99%150W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 4% -7.8%
≤30d 152 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 4% -7.8%
≤90d 152 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 4% -7.8%
all 152 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 4% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 4% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -16.6%
15% -25.6% 1% -24.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.95 per $1 lost it wins $8.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses150 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.16 · official $19.56 · 477 history records