Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa503…f016 crypto 34 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-25%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 32% -33.9%
≤30d 34 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 32% -33.9%
≤90d 34 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 32% -33.9%
all 34 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 32% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 32% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 26% -40.2%
15% -41.9% 18% -46.0%
20% -47.6% 18% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records