Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa503…336c crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$981 (+19%) realized +$981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%40W / 7L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$4
sports 16% +$1,060
crypto 16% −$77
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 88% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 -9.3% -17.9% 86% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 44 -8.9% -17.5% 86% 0% -11.3%
all 47 -5.5% -14.5% 85% 2% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 2% +8.2%
10% -22.7% 2% -2.2%
15% -30.1% 2% -11.6%
20% -37.0% 2% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.78 per $1 lost it wins $12.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses40 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage142d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $3,430 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $13 −$13 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 21? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 27? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
UNCG Spartans vs. The Citadel Bulldogs Feb 02 $800 +$1,060 +133%
Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 24h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $3,426 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3,430 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? BUY No 97¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.99 · official $40.93 (match) · 96 history records