Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa507…2689 crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-5%) realized −$84 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%80W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$45
sports 44% −$74
other 5% −$6
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.4% -19.0% 33% 33% +36.9%
≤30d 9 -10.4% -19.0% 33% 33% +36.9%
≤90d 183 -15.3% -23.4% 44% 37% -15.7%
all 183 -15.3% -23.4% 44% 37% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 37% -15.7%
10% -30.7% 32% -23.8%
15% -37.4% 29% -31.1%
20% -43.6% 23% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses80 / 103
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 189
History coverage63d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN Jun 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$50 +123%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$31 +233%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? Apr 19 $20 −$11 -56%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 19 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Phantom Academy vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Exort Serie Apr 18 $56 +$10 +18%
Wuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Fajing Sun Apr 18 $21 +$5 +22%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Sta Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Liam Broady Apr 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $4 +$3 +64%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 Apr 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $37 +$18 +49%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $5 +$5 +108%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $5 −$3 -50%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 16? Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 16? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $140 +$50 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $40 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 16 $1 +$3 +260%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN SELL 12¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 26¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 12¢ $5 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY $5 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY $5 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 20¢ $5 18h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 27h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Spirit 25¢ $8 57d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Spirit 24¢ $9 57d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 57d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Spirit 24¢ $61 57d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 57d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.82 · official $21.82 (match) · 442 history records