Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa50a…4e2e
sports · 130 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$15 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses76 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)126 / 130
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 70¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A Abyssal 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Grey Trac 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Sabalenka 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner G2 Ares 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Aurora 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner NRG 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BetBoom Team 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Fonseca 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner FULL SENSE 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$3 +95%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $9 −$5 -56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $15 −$2 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +85%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$2 +12%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$3 -65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$6 +46%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $15 −$5 -36%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$1 -38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $1 $0 -46%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -76%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$1
other 16% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $5 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $5 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 44¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $2 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 50¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $3 3h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nemiga Gaming 7¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 26¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 5¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 32¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $13 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 11¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 44¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 99¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 81¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 84¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 92¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -6.9% -15.7% 58% 50% -7.1%
≤30d 126 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 126 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 50% -6.6%
all 126 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 50% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% -6.6%
10% -20.6% 37% -15.5%
15% -28.3% 25% -23.7%
20% -35.3% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.55 · official $21.55 (match) · 308 history records