Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa50a…fab9 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 15% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 3% +$3
tech 3% +$2
weather 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 22 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 14% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 14% -10.4%
10% -22.7% 5% -19.0%
15% -30.2% 5% -26.8%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage488d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 −$2 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 22 $4 $0 +1%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 07 $3 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $11 +$2 +16%
Portland vs. St. Mary's Feb 20 $9 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $14 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $18 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $32 44h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $9 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $23 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $22 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $20 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $20 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $17 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records