Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa50c…6ac7 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 37% −$1
politics 6% +$1
sports 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 -2.8% -12.1% 36% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -2.8% -12.1% 36% 7% -8.6%
all 31 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage400d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $44 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $6 −$2 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $6 −$1 -19%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Canada raise tariffs on the U.S. before June? Jun 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 28 $24 $0 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 16 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 15 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $39 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $26 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $2 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $32 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $14 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $15 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $46 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $44 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $44 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $44 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $20 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $20 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $30 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records