Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa50e…d357 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$311 (+16%) realized +$318 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$6
other 36% +$331
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
≤30d 2 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
≤90d 2 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
all 2 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.6% 100% +45.1%
10% +32.5% 100% +31.2%
15% +19.7% 100% +18.5%
20% +8.0% 100% +6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$703
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $700 $694 −$6 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $455 +$271 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $93 +$60 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $720 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $455 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $461 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $153 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.79 · official $702.79 (match) · 11 history records