Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa516…0392 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,663 (-19%) realized −$5,652 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day88.8pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$908
7 days−$5,867
14 days−$5,956
30 days−$5,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$5,180
crypto 30% −$805
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -39.1% -44.9% 42% 42% -41.1%
≤30d 37 +24.7% +12.9% 51% 38% -29.8%
≤90d 37 +24.7% +12.9% 51% 38% -29.8%
all 37 +24.7% +12.9% 51% 38% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.9% 38% -29.8%
10% +2.1% 35% -36.5%
15% ← realistic here -7.8% 27% -42.6%
20% -16.8% 14% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$978) neutral
Persistence
early +89% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$647 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,197
Realized−$5,652
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$786
Trades / day88.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 54¢ $1,208 $1,197 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $917 +$310 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $992 −$978 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,698 +$1,265 +47%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,528 −$1,506 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,316 −$2,316 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $807 +$196 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $382 −$363 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,865 −$1,865 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,976 +$1,057 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,015 +$685 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $528 −$523 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,138 +$894 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $35 −$4 -11%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $325 +$6 +2%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $332 −$18 -5%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $254 +$159 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $9 −$8 -94%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $101 +$10 +9%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $51 +$29 +58%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $213 +$89 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $481 −$175 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $166 −$134 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $157 −$95 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $695 −$659 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $2,049 −$665 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $4,164 +$764 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $379 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $228 +$104 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,225 15m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $104 37m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $509 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $472 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $88 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $3 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $917 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $992 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $489 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $382 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,092 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $265 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $106 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $11 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $33 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $11 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $680 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $42 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $19 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,197.21 · official $1,197.21 (match) · 928 history records