Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa516…fb18 crypto 60 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$5
sports 41% +$4
other 12% −$3
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 30% -8.5%
≤30d 56 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 34% -12.9%
≤90d 56 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 34% -12.9%
all 56 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 34% -12.9%
10% -34.2% 27% -21.2%
15% -40.5% 21% -28.8%
20% -46.3% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$18 +874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 25¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL HEROIC Academy 24¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $4 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 17¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 17¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY XCLAN 20¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A BUY Saab 17¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $11 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 10¢ $2 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.04 · official $14.04 (match) · 99 history records