Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa51b…d6f0 crypto 1277 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,226 (-8%) realized −$1,226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%777W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$675
other 37% −$161
sports 8% +$96
world 5% −$227
tech 2% −$161
politics 2% −$97
weather 1% −$53
economics 1% +$6
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 45% -0.3%
≤30d 65 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 45% -6.5%
≤90d 368 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 48% -13.1%
all 1277 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 50% -17.5%
10% -22.4% 38% -25.4%
15% -29.9% 28% -32.6%
20% -36.8% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses777 / 500
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1277 / 1277
History coverage192d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1277 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $42 +$28 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $21 −$6 -27%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 +$27 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $19 −$1 -6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $16 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $21 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3398 history records