Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa51d…a901 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$268
sports 20% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 21% +7.9%
≤30d 19 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 21% +7.9%
≤90d 19 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 21% +7.9%
all 19 -33.0% -39.4% 26% 21% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 21% +7.9%
10% -45.2% 21% -2.5%
15% -50.5% 21% -11.9%
20% -55.3% 21% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$22 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $49 +$143 +289%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $30 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $99 +$122 +123%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $99 +$74 +74%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $104 +$120 +115%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $79 −$20 -25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 93¢ $193 45m
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 28h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $221 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 44¢ $99 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $99 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 28¢ $22 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 57¢ $224 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 23¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 26¢ $99 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 20¢ $60 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 25¢ $49 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 28¢ $30 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records