Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa51f…104b crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-5%) realized −$44 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$47
crypto 16% −$86
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.9% +3.0% 43% 43% -8.1%
≤30d 23 +13.9% +3.0% 43% 43% -8.1%
≤90d 104 -29.5% -36.2% 34% 29% -12.1%
all 104 -29.5% -36.2% 34% 29% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 29% -12.1%
10% -42.3% 28% -20.5%
15% -47.9% 27% -28.2%
20% -53.0% 24% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)104 / 113
History coverage66d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$40 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$24 +195%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$25 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$72 +262%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$41 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 −$29 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 21 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 21 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$3 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$3 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$3 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.34 · official $189.35 (match) · 205 history records