Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa526…c9f9 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,112 (-30%) realized −$10,228 · open −$2,884
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,449per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$978
7 days−$4,489
14 days−$15,471
30 days−$15,471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$15,036
other 12% −$1,166
crypto 3% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.0% -29.5% 40% 40% -34.6%
≤30d 23 -25.9% -32.9% 39% 39% -51.3%
≤90d 23 -25.9% -32.9% 39% 39% -51.3%
all 28 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -40.6%
10% -24.0% 46% -46.3%
15% -31.4% 43% -51.4%
20% -38.1% 39% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,065) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$791 vs −$1,726 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$2,107
Realized−$10,228
Unrealized−$2,884
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,449
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 30¢ 11¢ $3,911 $1,446 −$2,466 (-63%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 48¢ 30¢ $1,079 $661 −$418 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $230 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,019 −$1,004 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,394 +$3,613 +151%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,086 −$2,065 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,430 +$658 +46%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,998 −$1,957 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,456 −$2,434 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,148 +$1,307 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $414 +$361 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$87 +84%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,454 −$2,414 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,569 −$1,550 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,060 +$1,092 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $641 +$617 +96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 11 $1,829 −$1,829 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Jun 11 $4,144 −$4,144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Jun 11 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,660 −$1,640 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $2,967 +$707 +24%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $1,013 +$815 +80%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5) Mar 14 $345 +$668 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 14 $169 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 14 $196 +$159 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $443 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $653 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $230 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $1,019 26h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,994 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2,394 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $2,086 47h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $1,430 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $1,998 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $2,456 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,148 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,454 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 60¢ $1,569 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 53¢ $1,014 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $3,152 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $2,060 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,258 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $641 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.60 · official $2,701.02 · 62 history records