Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa52a…1884
world · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$48 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage460d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $133 +$15 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 −$3 -8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $430 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $81 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $79 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $264 −$4 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $415 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $133 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $228 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $151 −$19 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $192 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $97 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $92 +$4 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $208 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $109 −$7 -6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $98 −$1 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $9 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 −$3 -10%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,948 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $1,981 −$12 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $281 −$22 -8%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 20 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Croatia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% −$22
politics 22% $0
other 21% −$4
sports 4% −$25
finance 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $89 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $19 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $12 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $44 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $26 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $33 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $35 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $38 21h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $81 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $88 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $88 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $73 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $52 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $72 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $81 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $81 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $79 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $76 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 9% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 3% -10.0%
all 88 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.98 · official $87.98 (match) · 312 history records