Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A5 0xa52a…754c crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,636 (-21%) realized −$17,718 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%105W / 129L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,080
7 days−$13,758
14 days−$13,861
30 days−$25,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$9,890
sports 1% −$133
other 0% +$17
world 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -50.3% -55.0% 19% 19% -86.7%
≤30d 85 -47.1% -52.2% 25% 24% -69.5%
≤90d 218 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 42% -35.6%
all 234 -7.8% -16.6% 45% 44% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 44% -32.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 43% -39.1%
15% -31.8% 42% -45.0%
20% -38.5% 39% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$430 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized−$17,718
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses105 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)234 / 203
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$417
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 70¢ $211 $275 +$64 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Down 42¢ 46¢ $210 $228 +$18 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 11PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jun 17 $825 −$825 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 2, 2PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2PM ET Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 1PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1AM ET Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 3PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1AM ET Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1PM ET Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 2PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 3PM ET Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8AM ET Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10AM ET Jun 17 $883 −$883 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 12PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 9PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$157 -91%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 2PM ET Jun 17 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET Jun 17 $964 −$964 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 12, 1AM ET Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 2AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5AM ET Jun 17 $505 −$505 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 9AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1,989 −$1,989 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 28, 11PM ET Jun 17 $109 +$23 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET Jun 17 $501 −$501 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1,984 −$1,981 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 27, 2PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $211 +$177 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$138 +69%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$91 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 +$121 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $428 +$347 +81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$53 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $75 +$125 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $109 +$81 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $522 −$504 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $212 −$204 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $263 +$253 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $219 14m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $214 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $121 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $38 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $89 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $112 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $81 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $84 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $75 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $110 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $112 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $98 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $200 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $109 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $72 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $98 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $61 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.45 · official $502.45 (match) · 3500 history records