Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa52b…9480
crypto · 307 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$109,750 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$123,732 · open +$1,479
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$193,986
Realized+$123,732
Unrealized+$1,479
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses271 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions16
Markets (closed)291 / 307
History coverage249d
Avg bet$17,685
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 16 History 291 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,702
7 days+$4,996
14 days+$11,994
30 days+$29,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $85,080 $85,542 +$462 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $20,586 $20,826 +$240 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17,136 $16,983 −$153 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16,422 $16,677 +$255 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10,706 $11,766 +$1,060 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $9,797 $9,746 −$50 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,979 $7,928 −$50 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,484 $7,524 −$960 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $5,357 $6,019 +$662 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,108 $4,068 −$40 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,074 $3,910 −$163 (-4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $1,039 $1,216 +$177 (+17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $656 $657 +$1 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 73¢ $554 $620 +$65 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $487 $464 −$23 (-5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 57¢ $42 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9,768 +$2,105 +22%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $25,762 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49,515 +$485 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $14,738 +$771 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $34,709 +$341 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $2,255 +$63 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $33,480 +$1,231 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $391 +$44 +11%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $8,840 +$692 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $59,447 +$1,542 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $2,717 +$69 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $64,627 +$3,979 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $478 +$24 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $31,790 +$346 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $16,697 +$303 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $12,964 +$408 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $113,274 +$10,308 +9%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $1,814 +$219 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $29,700 +$300 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $31,917 +$287 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 22 $1,205 +$80 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $33,165 +$835 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $32,199 +$1,413 +4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,278 +$222 +17%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $42 +$8 +18%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $236 +$14 +6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $34,673 +$835 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $14,721 +$497 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $5,005 +$177 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $13,612 +$988 +7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $844 +$43 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $69,063 +$581 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $12,220 +$280 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $792 +$8 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $57,600 +$2,220 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 12 $1,187 +$159 +13%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $404 +$20 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $1,660 +$647 +39%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $29 −$20 -70%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $547 −$82 -15%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 03 $217 −$77 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $25,868 +$2,470 +10%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 01 $659 +$41 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $36,669 +$1,230 +3%
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision? May 01 $161 +$8 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $7,266 −$820 -11%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $20 −$18 -88%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $290 +$18 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $12,312 +$75 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$987
world 14% −$21,257
economics 13% +$117,937
sports 8% +$12,858
politics 8% +$10,406
other 7% +$4,236
tech 3% +$1,091
finance 0% +$541
culture 0% +$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $188 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 4h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 5h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 7h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 7h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 7h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 8h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 9h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 9h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.0% -5.0% 86% 14% -6.9%
≤30d 34 +2.4% -7.4% 94% 15% -6.0%
≤90d 72 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 12% -5.7%
all 291 +8.2% -2.1% 93% 8% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 8% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -16.2%
15% -20.0% 3% -24.3%
20% -27.9% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193,985.59 · official $193,985.59 (match) · 3500 history records