Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa530…88f6
weather · 1422 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$190 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,919
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1233 / 115
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions73
Markets (closed)1348 / 1422
History coverage24d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day95.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 73 History 1348 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$111
14 days+$24
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $165 $178 +$12 (+8%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $133 $146 +$14 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 91¢ $128 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 89¢ $127 $133 +$6 (+5%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $130 $133 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $97 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $87 $91 +$3 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $87 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $88 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 93¢ 69¢ $97 $72 −$25 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 100¢ 96¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$6 -81%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$12 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$3 -56%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $14 −$9 -67%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 67% −$23
sports 11% −$388
culture 7% +$42
tech 6% +$49
other 5% +$25
politics 2% +$87
finance 2% +$8
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 96¢ $8 34m
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 96¢ $8 35m
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 96¢ $8 35m
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 96¢ $8 36m
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 90¢ $9 37m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $1 43m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $7 54m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 23¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 85¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 91¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 75¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 92¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 89¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 93¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 92¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 88¢ $7 2h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $87 7h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 7h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 7h
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top global Netflix movie this BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Poor Things" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the top global Netflix show this BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 385 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 6% -8.8%
≤30d 1348 -1.9% -11.3% 91% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 1348 -1.9% -11.3% 91% 8% -9.9%
all 1348 -1.9% -11.3% 91% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover95.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 8% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,919.09 · official $2,917.38 (match) · 3500 history records