Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa533…acac other 720 markets active 0h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,056 (+4%) realized +$11,153 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%441W / 275L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$965est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days+$1,160
14 days+$2,502
30 days+$5,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2,813
sports 37% +$7,192
crypto 2% −$15
world 1% +$623
politics 0% −$648
economics 0% +$396
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 51% -5.2%
≤30d 132 +1.6% -8.0% 58% 57% -1.3%
≤90d 246 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 59% -5.0%
all 716 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 60% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 60% -6.1%
10% -19.5% 49% -15.1%
15% -27.3% 39% -23.3%
20% -34.4% 24% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$224 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$1,783
Realized+$11,153
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses441 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$965
Open positions3
Markets (closed)716 / 720
History coverage697d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1,580 $1,590 +$10 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner MOUZ 47¢ 60¢ $150 $193 +$43 (+29%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 43¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $203 +$161 +79%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$94 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$116 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $151 +$52 +34%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $152 +$116 +76%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $152 +$76 +50%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $153 −$12 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $352 −$350 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,499 +$459 +31%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $507 −$24 -5%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $304 −$266 -87%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$223 +44%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $203 +$205 +101%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $203 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$76 +149%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $355 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $505 +$188 +37%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$189 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $304 +$241 +79%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $430 +$281 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $203 +$149 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $253 −$250 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,588 −$913 -35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $589 +$281 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,536 +$1,956 +127%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,524 +$240 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $507 −$282 -56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $590 +$390 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,009 +$418 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,220 +$750 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,016 +$687 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,120 +$430 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $480 −$480 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $810 +$546 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$115 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,863 −$1,854 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $152 22m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 43¢ $153 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $363 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 55¢ $203 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,580 4h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $152 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $151 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $152 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $141 16h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 16h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $152 16h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $152 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $152 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $153 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 71¢ $504 23h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 79¢ $352 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,499 40h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $483 41h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 42h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 7¢ $38 43h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 63¢ $354 45h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 50¢ $304 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $728 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $354 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 50¢ $189 2d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Eternal Fire 43¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,783.26 · official $1,783.26 (match) · 1947 history records