Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa539…f382 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$16
politics 33% −$13
sports 8% +$85
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 7% -9.5%
all 118 +1.5% -8.2% 11% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 7% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×12.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage117d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $299 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $309 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $260 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $421 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $405 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 06 $711 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $277 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $288 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 6h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 7h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 12h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 12h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 32h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 372 history records