Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
A5 0xa53b…4021 other 365 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d ⚠
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,353 (+31%) realized +$17,414 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate75%259W / 88L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$538
7 days+$1,074
14 days+$2,908
30 days+$5,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$8,789
finance 33% +$4,966
crypto 31% +$1,412
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +42.9% +29.3% 76% 65% +21.2%
≤30d 61 +34.3% +21.6% 69% 59% +20.8%
≤90d 269 +54.4% +39.7% 71% 60% +15.4%
all 347 +53.8% +39.2% 75% 60% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.2% 60% +16.3%
10% ← realistic here +25.9% 50% +5.2%
15% +13.7% 40% -5.0%
20% +2.5% 31% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$35 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized+$17,414
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses259 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)347 / 365
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$152
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 58¢ $270 $305 +$35 (+13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $245 $250 +$5 (+2%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.14 (Low) in 2026? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $207 $202 −$5 (-3%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $124 $120 −$4 (-3%)
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $84 $95 +$11 (+13%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? No 25¢ 36¢ $57 $84 +$27 (+47%)
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $64 $63 −$2 (-2%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $8 $22 +$13 (+166%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-49%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-40%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $97 $15 −$83 (-85%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $36 $5 −$31 (-86%)
Will Solana reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 80¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+433%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026? No 35¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 15¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+562%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 19 $497 +$138 +28%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$32 +59%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $108 +$395 +364%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $53 +$127 +239%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $55 −$52 -94%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $33 +$19 +58%
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $224 +$44 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $68 +$58 +85%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $161 +$10 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +50%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$6 +25%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$16 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $1,367 +$141 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $304 +$332 +109%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 12 $130 +$6 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$7 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $190 +$12 +6%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Jun 11 $122 +$51 +42%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $190 +$49 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $235 +$99 +42%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 09 $12 +$54 +462%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $662 +$119 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $497 +$294 +59%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $2,525 +$773 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$45 +142%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $458 +$130 +28%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 06 $156 +$46 +29%
BNB Up or Down on June 4? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $83 −$5 -6%
HYPE Up or Down on June 4? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $226 +$13 +6%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $325 +$121 +37%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $85 +$100 +117%
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? Jun 04 $643 +$1,239 +193%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $575 +$255 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $78 +$122 +155%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June? Jun 01 $117 +$39 +34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 01 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $123 −$69 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $383 −$379 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $706 −$164 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 28 $164 +$113 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 18 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $71 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $37 +$55 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 44¢ $340 10m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 15m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 20m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $150 28m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $157 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $46 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $120 17h
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $68 17h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 17h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 17h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 18h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 19h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $111 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $122 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 25h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 30h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 30h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 30h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 30h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 36¢ $180 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 33h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 34h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $68 34h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 34h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.06 · official $1,205.37 · 3500 history records